Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-173/+137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -173.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to earn 6.3 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has been a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack this season (19.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (12.8%).
Pat Freiermuth has been among the best TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 4.6 receptions per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 68.9%.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (65.3%) versus TEs this year (65.3%).

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