Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.1 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 6.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth's 42.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 26.3.
Pat Freiermuth has been among the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 4.8 receptions per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 80.1% to 69.5%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on a mere 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.