Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-160/+127).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers have been the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to total 6.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth's 39.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 26.8.
Pat Freiermuth's receiving talent has been refined this year, compiling 4.7 yards per game compared to a mere 3.6 last year.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 80.0% to 69.5%.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the lowest Completion% in the league (52.6%) vs. TEs this year (52.6%).
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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