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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.

The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a whopping 61.4 per game on average).

With an elite 75.3% Route% (86th percentile) this year, Pat Freiermuth has been as one of the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.

Pat Freiermuth's 92.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last year's 73.2% rate.

Pat Freiermuth's 9.4 adjusted yards per target this year illustrates an impressive gain in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 7.2 rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line suggests a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3.5 points.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 44.1% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically cause worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher rush volume.

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.

Pat Freiermuth has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (17.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).

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