Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 20, 2023 4:06 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the model to call 65.8 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect Pat Freiermuth to accrue 5.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
This year, the weak Rams defense has been gouged for a whopping 68.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 2nd-most in the league.
This year, the poor Rams defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a staggering 8.89 yards.

Favors Under

The 7th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (only 54.6 per game on average).
Pat Freiermuth has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
Pat Freiermuth's 22.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 41.2.
The Steelers O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Pat Freiermuth's 15.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season represents a a material reduction in his receiving talent over last season's 49.0 figure.

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