Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.8% to 47.6%.
Pat Freiermuth's pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this season, totaling a measly 1.72 yards-per-target vs a 7.69 figure last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. TEs since the start of last season, conceding 6.97 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the league.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.60 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in football.

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