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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers will be rolling with backup QB Mason Rudolph this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.

Our trusted projections expect Pat Freiermuth to garner 5.1 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.

The Bengals defense has given up the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (70.0) vs. tight ends this year.

The Bengals pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (82.7%) vs. TEs this year (82.7%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Steelers to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 6th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a mere 55.5 per game on average).

Pat Freiermuth has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (32.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).

Pat Freiermuth's 32.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 41.2.

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