Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 16, 2023 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
The projections expect Pat Freiermuth to accumulate 6.1 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.
This year, the shaky Indianapolis Colts defense has conceded a monstrous 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

Right now, the 10th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Steelers.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.2 per game) this year.
After accruing 50.0 air yards per game last year, Pat Freiermuth has regressed heavily this year, now boasting 34.0 per game.
Pat Freiermuth's 32.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 41.2.
The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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