Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The predictive model expects Pat Freiermuth to accrue 4.9 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth's 64.5% Adjusted Catch% this season indicates a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 67.8% mark.

Favors Under

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Steelers have called the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being projected in this game) usually cause decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.

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