Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 6th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (59.0) to TEs this year.
The Bengals pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency against TEs this year, conceding 8.49 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties profile as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Pat Freiermuth's 9.7% Target% this season illustrates a remarkable regression in his pass game workload over last season's 18.9% rate.
After accruing 50.0 air yards per game last season, Pat Freiermuth has produced significantly fewer this season, currently averaging 16.0 per game.
When it comes to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year.
Pat Freiermuth has notched substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (13.0) this season than he did last season (49.0).

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