Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+104/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to total 5.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has compiled a colossal 50.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth's 41.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 91st percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown good efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, allowing 6.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.29 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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