Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-106/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 5.5 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
Pat Freiermuth's 36.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 26.8.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.0% to 66.0%.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has shown good efficiency versus tight ends this year, conceding 6.79 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.03 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.