Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accrue 5.8 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has posted a colossal 32.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth's 43.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 26.8.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Pat Freiermuth's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 80.0% to 55.8%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on just 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.