Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-106/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.3% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accrue 6.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has been much more involved in his offense's pass game this year (20.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.8%).
Pat Freiermuth has accumulated quite a few more air yards this season (58.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 67.5%.
The Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 37.0) versus tight ends this year.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. TEs this year, giving up 6.92 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.54 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.

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