Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (+100/-133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accrue 7.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has been a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense this season (20.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (12.8%).
Pat Freiermuth has totaled far more air yards this year (59.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 80.1% to 69.2%.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.99 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the league.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.

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