Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-590).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -586 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -590.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a heavy 11.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Pat Freiermuth has posted quite a few more air yards this year (52.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to be much less involved in his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (22.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (30.8% in games he has played).
Pat Freiermuth's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.0% to 71.4%.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.4%) to tight ends this year (63.4%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has given their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

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