Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-590).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +335 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +320.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth has put up many more air yards this year (58.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
Pat Freiermuth's 47.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 26.8.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to be much less involved in his team's passing game near the goal line this week (26.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (50.0% in games he has played).
Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.0% to 62.5%.

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