Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-400).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
Pat Freiermuth has posted a colossal 32.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth's 43.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 26.8.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to be a much smaller part of his team's pass game near the end zone this week (23.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (50.0% in games he has played).
Pat Freiermuth's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 80.0% to 55.8%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on just 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.