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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+257/-423).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -360 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -423.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

Pat Freiermuth has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 22.5% this year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.

Pat Freiermuth has accrued significantly more air yards this season (59.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).

Pat Freiermuth's 44.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 26.3.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 123.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.1% to 68.6%.

The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends grade out as the 9th-best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.

The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.

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