Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+206/-310).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +211 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +206.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Pat Freiermuth has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 23.7% this year, which places him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has totaled far more air yards this year (59.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
Pat Freiermuth's 44.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 26.3.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 80.1% to 69.2%.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 5th-least passing TDs in the league to TEs: 0.17 per game this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.

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