Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+310/-470).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
Pat Freiermuth has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.7% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has compiled many more air yards this season (54.0 per game) than he did last season (28.0 per game).
Pat Freiermuth's 39.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 26.8.
The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 80.0% to 69.5%.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the lowest Completion% in the league (52.6%) vs. TEs this year (52.6%).
The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 3rd-least TDs through the air in football to tight ends: 0.11 per game this year.

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