Parris Campbell Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Parris Campbell

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 6, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Parris Campbell Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+165/-225).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -225.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.2 plays per game.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Parris Campbell has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, catching a terrific 81.1% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 87th percentile among WRs.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.33 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Parris Campbell's 15.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 31.7.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (59.9%) to wide receivers this year (59.9%).
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.