Parris Campbell Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Parris Campbell

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Parris Campbell Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-195/+145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
Parris Campbell has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (85.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (55.3%).
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has allowed their QB 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts have incorporated play action on 33.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.