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Parris Campbell

Parris Campbell Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Parris Campbell Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+159/-224).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -224.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has allowed their QB 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.

The Indianapolis Colts have utilized play action on 33.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.8% pass rate.

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in the league since the start of last season.

The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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