Parris Campbell Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Parris Campbell

NFL · Player Props

Parris Campbell

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Parris Campbell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to use backup QB Sam Ehlinger this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Parris Campbell has been used less as a potential target this year (88.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (55.3%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Parris Campbell has totaled far fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (53.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (62.6%) vs. wideouts this year (62.6%).

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