Parris Campbell Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Parris Campbell

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM UTC

Analysis

Parris Campbell Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+428/-961).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +436 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +428.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans defense has allowed the 2nd-most TDs through the air in the NFL to wide receivers: 1.30 per game since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has allowed their QB 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts have incorporated play action on 33.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Parris Campbell's 13.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 31.7.
The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.