Parker Hesse Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Parker Hesse

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Parker Hesse Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-103/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a giant 10-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Parker Hesse to be a more important option in his team's passing offense this week (11.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.3% in games he has played).
Parker Hesse has been among the best possession receivers in football among tight ends, completing a terrific 82.0% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Parker Hesse has been among the weakest tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a measly 1.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 15th percentile among TEs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.