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Parker Hesse
NFL · Player Props
Parker Hesse
TE · Atlanta Falcons
Receptions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022 Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC
NFL Props Parker Hesse Receptions

Parker Hesse Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-103/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -129.

Favors Over
  • The Falcons are a giant 10-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
  • THE BLITZ projects Parker Hesse to be a more important option in his team's passing offense this week (11.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.3% in games he has played).
  • Parker Hesse has been among the best possession receivers in football among tight ends, completing a terrific 82.0% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 77th percentile.
Favors Under
  • THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
  • Parker Hesse has been among the weakest tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a measly 1.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 15th percentile among TEs.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
  • The Atlanta Falcons O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
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