Parker Hesse Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Parker Hesse

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Parker Hesse Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a giant 10-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Parker Hesse to be a more important option in his team's passing offense this week (11.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.3% in games he has played).
Parker Hesse has been among the best possession receivers in football among tight ends, completing a terrific 82.0% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Parker Hesse has been among the weakest TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging just 12.0 yards per game while checking in at the 21st percentile among tight ends.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency against tight ends this year, yielding 6.57 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.90 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.