Parker Hesse Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Parker Hesse

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Parker Hesse Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+135/-175).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Completion% in the league (73.5%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (73.5%).
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has struggled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.73 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-most in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Parker Hesse has been among the weakest pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a measly 10.0 yards per game while ranking in the 15th percentile among TEs.