Parker Hesse Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Parker Hesse

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 2:40 AM EST

Analysis

Parker Hesse Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (58.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in football (78.7%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (78.7%).
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has displayed bad efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, conceding 8.62 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.0 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Parker Hesse has been among the weakest TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 10.0 yards per game while checking in at the 16th percentile among TEs.