Parker Hesse Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Parker Hesse

NFL · Player Props

Parker Hesse

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Parker Hesse Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Parker Hesse has been used less as a potential target this season (29.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (16.1%).
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Parker Hesse has been among the most efficient receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a terrific 9.05 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.7 plays per game.
Parker Hesse has totaled a meager 4.0 air yards per game this year: just 25th percentile among tight ends.
The New Orleans Saints defense has yielded the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 31.0) to tight ends this year.

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