Parker Hesse Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Parker Hesse

NFL · Player Props

Parker Hesse

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Parker Hesse Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+140/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
Parker Hesse has gone out for fewer passes this year (29.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (16.1%).
The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has given up the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the league (58.0) vs. TEs this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
Parker Hesse has been among the weakest pass-game TEs this year, averaging a measly 11.0 yards per game while grading out in the 18th percentile among TEs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers rank as the 9th-best group of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

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