Parker Hesse Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Parker Hesse

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Parker Hesse Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Parker Hesse to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack this week (7.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.5% in games he has played).
Parker Hesse has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging a stellar 9.47 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 80th percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 45.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
Parker Hesse has been among the weakest pass-game TEs this year, averaging just 11.0 yards per game while checking in at the 24th percentile among tight ends.