O.J. Howard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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O.J. Howard

NFL · Player Props

O.J. Howard

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

O.J. Howard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects O.J. Howard to accumulate 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
O.J. Howard's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.8% to 55.4%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (69.2%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (69.2%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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