O.J. Howard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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O.J. Howard

NFL · Player Props

O.J. Howard

TE · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 2:55 AM UTC

Analysis

O.J. Howard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects O.J. Howard to be much more involved in his team's passing game this week (8.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.0% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 59.7 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 34.0) vs. tight ends since the start of last season.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.7%) to TEs since the start of last season (64.7%).

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