O.J. Howard Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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O.J. Howard

NFL · Player Props

O.J. Howard

TE · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

O.J. Howard Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+386/-804).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -748 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -804.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
O.J. Howard has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (32.0 per game) than he did last season (8.0 per game).
O.J. Howard's 18.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 6.0.
O.J. Howard grades out in the 92nd percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.50 per game.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
O.J. Howard's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.8% to 55.4%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (69.2%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (69.2%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded the least touchdowns through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.00 per game this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

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