Odell Beckham Jr. Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Odell Beckham Jr.

NFL · Player Props

Odell Beckham Jr.

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 4:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Odell Beckham Jr. Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-146/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -148 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties project as the 4th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Ravens have been the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (63.8%) to WRs since the start of last season (63.8%).

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