Odell Beckham Jr. Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Odell Beckham Jr.

NFL · Player Props

Odell Beckham Jr.

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Odell Beckham Jr. Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the projection model to run 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
The Rams linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.
The projections expect the Ravens as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (55.5%) versus WRs this year (55.5%).

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