Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Odell Beckham Jr.

NFL · Player Props

Odell Beckham Jr.

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-148/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Ravens profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has yielded the 10th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (172.0) vs. wideouts this year.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 50.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Ravens.
Odell Beckham Jr. profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching just 56.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 15th percentile among WRs
The Seahawks pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.

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