Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Odell Beckham Jr.

NFL · Player Props

Odell Beckham Jr.

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The projections expect the Ravens to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This year, the deficient Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded a colossal 194.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 48.7% of their plays: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
As it relates to linebackers getting after the quarterback, Pittsburgh's unit has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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