Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Odell Beckham Jr.

NFL · Player Props

Odell Beckham Jr.

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown weak efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, surrendering 8.80 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Ravens have been the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (63.8%) to WRs since the start of last season (63.8%).

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