Nyheim Hines Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Nyheim Hines

NFL · Player Props

Nyheim Hines

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Nyheim Hines Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
Nyheim Hines has run for significantly fewer yards per game (5.0) this season than he did last season (15.0).
The New York Jets defense owns the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering just 4.02 yards-per-carry.

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