Nyheim Hines Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Nyheim Hines

NFL · Player Props

Nyheim Hines

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 2:58 AM UTC

Analysis

Nyheim Hines Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Nyheim Hines to accumulate 3.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Nyheim Hines has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 11.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 89th percentile among RBs.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Colts are a big 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Colts rank as the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 60.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
Nyheim Hines has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL among running backs, completing a measly 72.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 20th percentile.

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