Nyheim Hines Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Nyheim Hines

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Nyheim Hines Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 71.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Nyheim Hines to earn 3.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
Nyheim Hines has posted a whopping 5.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Nyheim Hines's talent in generating extra yardage have worsened this season, accumulating a mere 6.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 7.72 rate last season.
The New York Jets pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (72.3%) vs. RBs this year (72.3%).
The New York Jets pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus RBs this year, giving up 5.05 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.