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Nyheim Hines

Nyheim Hines Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Nyheim Hines Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -137.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 71.7% pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Nyheim Hines to earn 3.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
  • Nyheim Hines has posted a whopping 5.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • Nyheim Hines's talent in generating extra yardage have worsened this season, accumulating a mere 6.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 7.72 rate last season.
  • The New York Jets pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (72.3%) vs. RBs this year (72.3%).
  • The New York Jets pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus RBs this year, giving up 5.05 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the league.
  • The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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