Nyheim Hines Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Nyheim Hines

NFL · Player Props

Nyheim Hines

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 7, 2022 12:20 AM EST

Analysis

Nyheim Hines Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+347/-676).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +389 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +347.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.2 plays per game.
Nyheim Hines has accumulated a colossal 4.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Nyheim Hines's 21.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 90th percentile for RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.33 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Nyheim Hines grades out in the 1st percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (73.9%) to running backs since the start of last season (73.9%).
The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the least passing TDs in the league to running backs: 0.00 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 10th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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