Nyheim Hines Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Nyheim Hines

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM EST

Analysis

Nyheim Hines Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+437/-999).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -994 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -999.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 128.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
Nyheim Hines has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.4% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
Nyheim Hines has accumulated a monstrous 8.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has conceded the 7th-least passing TDs in football to running backs: 0.16 per game since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.