Noah Gray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 4, 2024 7:56 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.
Noah Gray's 20.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 15.0.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Noah Gray's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this season, compiling 2.9 adjusted receptions vs just 1.7 last season.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.