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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-127/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -103.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.4 per game on average).

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.

Noah Gray's 22.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 15.0.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

This year, the tough Houston Texans defense has allowed a puny 64.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 2nd-best rate in the league.

The Texans defensive ends profile as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year with their pass rush.

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