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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football (67.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.

The model projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 148.3 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Chiefs have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.

Noah Gray's 21.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 15.0.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the best in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 4.5-point favorite this week.

Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.

The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.5%) versus TEs this year (71.5%).

The Browns defensive ends profile as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.

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