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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a massive 61.3 per game on average).

Opposing teams have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the best in the league this year.

Noah Gray's 91.3% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last year's 71.0% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have only 124.6 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.

Noah Gray has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, playing on 60.0% of snaps compared to just 49.9% last year.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (73.6%) versus tight ends this year (73.6%).

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